Originally Posted by Alex McKee:
I absolutely cannot believe I just read that.

You actually wish to bring death and destruction on your own people. Disgusting.

No I don't wish to bring it on personally, however I do wish for others to 'bring it on' sure.

I dare you to find a single 20 year gap in human history where there has not been a major war.

You wnt because the human animal seeks conflict, and when there is none he will seek to make it.

When societies are not fighting together they begin fighting amongst themselves (how many teenage stabbings do you think happened in london during WW2?)

War also brings many benefits, technology never progresses faster than in wartime, look at what evolved from WW2, radar, jet engines, nuclear power, etc.

And I stick by my original point, the world is vastly overpopulated, The true figure for the human population should be in the low millions not the low billions.
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Originally Posted by GenghisChris:
No I don't wish to bring it on personally, however I do wish for others to 'bring it on' sure.

I didn't mean to imply you were intending to start such a war. :-)
I find it incredible that you want such a thing to badly affect our country, though.

Originally Posted by GenghisChris:
I dare you to find a single 20 year gap in human history where there has not been a major war.

You wnt because the human animal seeks conflict, and when there is none he will seek to make it.

It doesn't have to be this way, though.

Originally Posted by GenghisChris:
When societies are not fighting together they begin fighting amongst themselves (how many teenage stabbings do you think happened in london during WW2?)

That is true. However humans are not necessarily incapable of living peacefully.

Originally Posted by GenghisChris:
War also brings many benefits, technology never progresses faster than in wartime, look at what evolved from WW2, radar, jet engines, nuclear power, etc.

Again that is true but we have developed things in peace-time too. :-)

War provides an impetus and increased demand. However the biggest benefit war causes is entirely inadvertent: it brings people together who would otherwise never meet. In wartime research budgets go through the roof and people who would otherwise be drawn off from pursuing the career they trained for are either attracted by the increased wages or are compelled to conduct such research. This allows some of the most talented people in their fields to meet each other and feed off each others ideas, education, expertise and energy.

There are other causes for such collaboration.

Originally Posted by GenghisChris:
And I stick by my original point, the world is vastly overpopulated, The true figure for the human population should be in the low millions not the low billions.

The carrying capacity of the Earth has never been fully investigated. Either way, human endeavour can already modify the carrying capacity of small areas of land without negative effects. Eventually we might be able to increase the carrying capacity of the entire planet through careful management and increased knowledge and understanding of the incredibly complex systems that operate the world.

Either way, the population of the world won't rise indefinitely. The first major population spike in history was caused by the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions right here in England. We're still in that same population increase. Population stopped rising in England in the late 19th century. World War 1 and World War 2 artificially changed our population growth and immigration is modifying it now.

The world is still subject to the same phenomenon. Industrialization is creating more food and more opportunity world wide and populations will rise until the ceiling is reached on that production. Despite food shortages, which are caused by mis-management, the ceiling on production has not been reached.

If you look at our own demographics which were mirrored elsewhere in the world, you can see how the population growth of China and India will slow eventually.
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Heres some of the really nasty doomer porn. You just gotta love this stuff.

The Oil Drum: Europe | A State of Emergency
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Originally Posted by Wowbanger TIP:
Heres some of the really nasty doomer porn. You just gotta love this stuff.

The Oil Drum: Europe | A State of Emergency

No, you and others should accept that much of what is presented there is fact, and that which is not is considered opinion based on fact.

If anyone had suggested this time last year that oil would be hitting the market at $100 / barrel they would have been dismissed as doomsayers yet today we're looking at $140 ad possibly $200 by the end of the year.

Even taking into account the falling US dollar it's a massive hike and the effects really haven’t started to bite on our economy yet nor has the movement from dealing in oil in US dollars to another currency, a thing that once it really takes off and can no longer be hushed up by US vested interests could very easily see the US dollar trading at around 3 or even more to the Euro within 3 - 5 years.

Then watch out for trouble in, and from the US.

A bellwether right now is the FTSE100. Strip out the oils and just look at the decline over the last 12 months. 30% plus, and as I wrote, the fan has not yet been hit.
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Originally Posted by Alex McKee:
I didn't mean to imply you were intending to start such a war. :-)
I find it incredible that you want such a thing to badly affect our country, though.



It doesn't have to be this way, though.



That is true. However humans are not necessarily incapable of living peacefully.



Again that is true but we have developed things in peace-time too. :-)

War provides an impetus and increased demand. However the biggest benefit war causes is entirely inadvertent: it brings people together who would otherwise never meet. In wartime research budgets go through the roof and people who would otherwise be drawn off from pursuing the career they trained for are either attracted by the increased wages or are compelled to conduct such research. This allows some of the most talented people in their fields to meet each other and feed off each others ideas, education, expertise and energy.

There are other causes for such collaboration.



The carrying capacity of the Earth has never been fully investigated. Either way, human endeavour can already modify the carrying capacity of small areas of land without negative effects. Eventually we might be able to increase the carrying capacity of the entire planet through careful management and increased knowledge and understanding of the incredibly complex systems that operate the world.

Either way, the population of the world won't rise indefinitely. The first major population spike in history was caused by the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions right here in England. We're still in that same population increase. Population stopped rising in England in the late 19th century. World War 1 and World War 2 artificially changed our population growth and immigration is modifying it now.

The world is still subject to the same phenomenon. Industrialization is creating more food and more opportunity world wide and populations will rise until the ceiling is reached on that production. Despite food shortages, which are caused by mis-management, the ceiling on production has not been reached.

If you look at our own demographics which were mirrored elsewhere in the world, you can see how the population growth of China and India will slow eventually.

This attitude is a classic of what I call Progress Theory. The idea that because humanity is progressing it is no longer bound by the rules which we know governed history. This idea is straight out of the Enlightenment, like most stupid and dangerous ideas, in philosophy it is known as "the perfectibility of man" and in British thought it is usually identified as "whig history". It produces statements like "It doesn't have to be that way" and "yes but we have developed/evolved/civilized/changed now". It also gave birth to Star Trek if its other many crime were not bad enough.

Progress Theory is sunk deeply into our culture because it was good at making predictions, the cardinal virtue of theories under the Empirical model. So it successfully predicted the technological developments of the Industrial Age and to a lesser extent the social developments. Although if you look carefully we might see that the "progress" has not been universally geographically spread or across all areas. In fact there are good arguments to suggest that in many areas humanity is "regressing" rather more than "progressing", Iran for example. Interestingly it also appears that the rate of technological progress has slowed dramatically in many fields, for example a Boeing Dreamliner has more in common with a 707 in terms of capabilities than it has with Concord which has been and gone.

But the really interesting thing here is the common belief that ever more can be extracted from ever less indefinitely. Particularly with reference to food. Modern Western agriculture relies on "inputs" to produce the colossal amounts of food it does. Although it has never been able to produce enough high quality food to supply the population which is why "mums shop at Iceland" buying adulterated, industrially transformed, chemically flavored "food". These inputs allow us to use the same fields to raise two and three crops a year, every year. The consequences of this for the complex chemical and biological structure of soil is disastrous. It is reckoned that without the "inputs" much of the American Mid West would be a desert as the soil has been effectively sterilized by half a century of chemical farming.

The primary "input" is fertilizer, almost invariably derived from ....... natural gas amazingly enough. The price of this commodity has quadrupled over the last two years, which more than any other factor has lead to the mysterious explosion in food prices. The reason the price has accelerated so rapidly is that supply, which is stable-ish currently, has been massively outstripped by demand. The West is in particular trouble because its indigenous supplies are in steep decline.

The current wave of shortages and the consequent price adjustments is exactly the first tiny ripples of what happens when the carrying capacity of the Earth is exceeded. There is no longer enough to go around and the poorest are going to lose out, badly. But not before everyone else has been comprehensively gouged by a desperate bidding war. Sickening a prospect as this is it is as nothing compared to the nightmarish possibility that very soon we will not only not be able to ramp up cheap oil production because we have caned the lot but production will actually decline.

An US government report from a couple of years ago suggested that the minimum amount of time required to brace for the impact of "peak oil", which has effectively happened now, was ten years and that was merely to achieve survival at minimal standards. Twenty would be required to make a relatively seamless change but only if massive efforts were made to develop and roll out alternatives, of which there are currently effectively none.

"The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking." Introduction Hirsch Report 2005

Hirsch report - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"If you think the United States has stood still, who built the largest shopping center in the world? "

Richard Nixon
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Incidentally you are factually incorrect to state that British population stopped increasing in the late 19th century. Haven't got the figures to hand but as late as 1914 the UK boasted a mere 45 million people. That figure is 60 million+ today and projected to reach 70 million shortly. An increase of more than a third in less than a century. Another blessing of immigration.

You can easily see this in the "tree rings" of development in our towns and cities which clearly demonstrate population growth over time.
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Originally Posted by The Bear:
No, you and others should accept that much of what is presented there is fact, and that which is not is considered opinion based on fact.

If anyone had suggested this time last year that oil would be hitting the market at $100 / barrel they would have been dismissed as doomsayers yet today we're looking at $140 ad possibly $200 by the end of the year.

Even taking into account the falling US dollar it's a massive hike and the effects really haven’t started to bite on our economy yet nor has the movement from dealing in oil in US dollars to another currency, a thing that once it really takes off and can no longer be hushed up by US vested interests could very easily see the US dollar trading at around 3 or even more to the Euro within 3 - 5 years.

Then watch out for trouble in, and from the US.

A bellwether right now is the FTSE100. Strip out the oils and just look at the decline over the last 12 months. 30% plus, and as I wrote, the fan has not yet been hit.

I go along with that, except at a certain point I think the value of the dollar and spiraling economic problems will simply blow apart the US and UK as functioning societies.

As to whether this is a good thing or not. On the one hand given my geographical location and social status I'm almost certainly dead in this eventuality. On the other I will have the very great pleasure of watching a hell of a lot of people responsible for this mess pay a very high price first.

Since me, my class, and my people are scheduled for demolition by globalization anyway its not like I have very much to lose.

And of course there are some tickets to Valhalla on the table if it does turn nasty, since I missed out in Iraq maybe I'll get lucky this time.:-)
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I see the gov, having built this monolithic public sector, have decided to now start what amounts to selling it off. No doubt for pence in the pound. All that tax money thrown away and now JCP etc. are going to get flogged off cheap so somebody else can make a fast buck.
I'd laugh at Labour if they weren't so bloody incompetent.

Watch the mass privitisations happen in the EU after we have had a healthy dose of economic and social "shock". Watch the cost go up along with the unemployment rate.

Ea of dune
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All this talk of 'alternative fuels' is really going nowhere without some genuine, miracle alternative to oil.

Oil has a very high energy ratio, second only to uranium, and is the only fuel capable of sustaining the heart of modern society, which is the combustion engine.

Solar, wind and dinky battery powered vehicles will remain toys reserved for feel-good greenie exhibitions and school projects. Try building an 'alternative' power source that doesn't require oil in some way to get the infrastructure in place. Even if some new high-energy battery was developed it would have to be introduced to the massive Asian markets in a few years to really make a difference.

Oil is it - there's really no known alternative. Without it no-one's going anywhere except back to the middle ages.

I predict massive wars in the Asia/Oceania region as things start to heat up, and before long China's going to stick a flag in Antarctica and claim it for themselves.
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The Telegraph is running a story that tells of an OPEC minister forecasting oil at around $US 170 / barrel this year with disruption of supply from Iran seeing the possibility of a $US 400 barrel as a consequence.

I just wonder what the magic figure will prove to be before the US (you just KNOW it will be them) decide that the cost / benefit calculation of going to war justifies the cost for the benefit of reduced oil costs.

My guess is around $US 250.

Now I've GOT to go to the shops!
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