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The following pro-Tory piece has a number of huge flaws and assumptions! Would it be too much to expect serious analysis of it, rather than the usual sloganising?

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EADT political editor Graham Dines believes a David Cameron government will disown European federalism but will back a federal UK to save the union. AT first sight, Britain's future relations with the European Union and the looming battle over Scottish independence may not seem linked. But in the minds of the bureaucrats of the European Commission, the two are inseparable.

Europe is on a federalist course. Despite the efforts of voters in Ireland and the President of Poland in delaying the Treaty of Lisbon, Europe's elite will not be sidetracked. And as all good Europeans know, the easiest way to bring about federalism is to encourage the break-up of nation states.

It's ironic that the first nation to fall apart in this century is likely to be Belgium, an unworkable marriage of two competing cultures whose main city Brussels proudly calls itself the Capital of Europe. The Dutch-speaking Flemish majority have never known such prosperity as they now enjoy. In contrast, the French-speaking region of Wallonia is stagnating and impoverished.

If Belgium breaks up, Brussels could conceivably become a city state comparable to Singapore. At the very least, it can expect to become a capital territory on the lines of Canberra in Australia and Washington DC in the United States. Once Belgium disappears - following the example of Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia - all eyes in continental Europe will turn to relations between London and Edinburgh.

Last week's shock Glasgow East by-election was not a vote by Glaswegians for independence. Union flag waving Protestants may well have voted for the Scottish National Party, but it was only the avenue open to them to vent their anger at rising fuel and food prices and the abolition of the 10p starting rate of tax - the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are nowhere in inner city Scottish constituencies.

But emboldened by their by-election gain, the SNP is ratcheting up the case for independence, knowing that they will have the unsaid backing of the EU. The more nation states that split in Europe, the greater advance of federalism. Not that European dreamers refer to it as federalism - knowing that it is a dirty word in many countries, the bureaucrats call it subsidiarity. (Subsidiarity means 'below the bishop's chair' and dates from times when Roman Catholic authoritarianism graciously allowed sees to hand down local powers to parish priests).

Enter the elephant in the room - David Cameron.

The EU and most of its member states are horrified at the speed Gordon Brown's government is disintegrating. They fear that a Conservative administration in the UK will once again cause problems in Brussels, attempting to renegotiate terms of membership, demanding a looser relationship based on trade and the free market, and a drawing back from the centralised diktats and regulations which are the hallmarks of closer political union.

Although Europe will not feature prominently in the Tory manifesto, the party's strategists believe that Cameron has railed against the EU establishment to such an extent that he will attract back to the Conservative fold from the UK Independence Party. If Brown falls and a General Election sweeps him to power, Cameron will attempt to torpedo the Treaty of Lisbon, the failed European Constitution in all but name.

With due respects to Ireland and Poland, their non-ratifications of the Treaty are but minor irritants to the body politic on the continent. But if the UK causes trouble, that will be far more vexatious. The EU was petrified that Brown would hold a referendum on the Treaty because it would have resulted in a massive 'no vote' and British rejection could not be brushed aside.

In the end, Brown duly obliged his European cronies and forced it through Parliament.

Europe will have worked out that if a British General Election is held at the last possible date in 2010, it would be too late for Cameron's grenade to have effect. But the prospect of an early election caused by the collapse of a lame duck Prime Minister which results in the election of Cameron changes the shape of EU politics. Cameron is likely to be at least as Eurosceptic as Margaret Thatcher. She wanted Europe tamed, as does Cameron. She failed because of her energetic support for the single market, which she realised too late was as federalist a move as a single European currency.

Under the Conservatives, nothing ever again will be imposed from Brussels without approval of the British electorate - Cameron will not make the mistake of John Major, who ratified the Maastrict Treaty through parliament rather than going to the country in a referendum. Cameron will fight hard for concessions from the EU. Britain will become so marginalised that he could threaten to begin the process of disengagement and seek the same status as Norway has with the EU.

But as he fights the EU on one front, he must also look out for the Scots on the other. Alex Salmond has totally out-flanked the Brown government, another example of the Prime Minister's failing political touch. Devolution, giving Edinburgh powers over legislation on health, education, transport, and policing, was meant to keep Scotland sweet.

The voices of those who believed it would lead to independence were contemptuously dismissed - after all Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and half the Cabinet were Scottish and they insisted that knew the limit of the aspirations of the Scots. How wrong they were. Salmond is busy calculating when the best time will be for a referendum on independence, but he favours one before the next Scottish parliament elections in 2011. Although the outcome is non-binding on the UK government, it could hardly ignore the vote.

Thanks to Mrs Thatcher, the Tories are a broken force north of the border. They have just one MP, and at best they're only likely to pick up three seats at the General Election. Although I don't think there is a thirst for full independence in Scotland - and it will take more than one referendum to achieve that goal - an SNP-led Scottish parliament will try to squeeze concessions out of a Cameron government.

It emerged last week that the Tories and SNP have had deep throat talks over the future of the union under a Cameron government. Cameron is likely to concede powers to Edinburgh in exchange for Salmond calling off a referendum. A wholesale re-drafting of the constitution could see a federal UK preserving a constitutional monarchy, with Westminster responsible only for foreign affairs, defence, revenue, customs, social security, immigration and border controls.

Edinburgh, Cardiff, Belfast and, yes, London would all have devolved parliaments, elected under proportional representation. This would suit the federalists of Europe.

How deliciously ironic it would be if the only way to fend off a federal Europe is to turn the United Kingdom into a federation.

EADT - Federal UK should defeat EU federalists

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Wow things certainly are moving at pace Interesting times ahead me thinks.
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Originally Posted by cassie:
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Although Europe will not feature prominently in the Tory manifesto, the party's strategists believe that Cameron has railed against the EU establishment to such an extent that he will attract back to the Conservative fold from the UK Independence Party.

Under the Conservatives, nothing ever again will be imposed from Brussels without approval of the British electorate - Cameron will not make the mistake of John Major, who ratified the Maastrict Treaty through parliament rather than going to the country in a referendum. Cameron will fight hard for concessions from the EU. Britain will become so marginalised that he could threaten to begin the process of disengagement and seek the same status as Norway has with the EU.

What? How has Cameron railed against the EU? Apart from camapgining for a referendum on Lison he did a u-turn on his one pledge to pull tory MEPs out of the EPP.

An second, how will future measures be put to the British electorate when Lisbon is self amending? I have asked my Tory MP this and am still waiting for an answer. EIther the journalist really doesn know sh*t or he is lying.
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If only any of that article was true. Cameron is not as anti-EU as that reporter (or ourselves) would like him to be.

I guess some people just get deluded and believe their own ******** to stop them going insane. I suppose it is a cheaper alternative to migrating to Australia.
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Originally Posted by :
The following pro-Tory piece has a number of huge flaws and assumptions! Would it be too much to expect serious analysis of it, rather than the usual sloganising?

I agree. I've little faith in the Tory party to anything to undo the mess Labour have created or to actually stick up for the English in any meaningful manner.
What will be interesting will be to see if Camerons bunch take a Thatcherite stance to the public sector and slash it back? This could cause a massive backlash in Scotland that would put to death their idea of a federal UK.

Ea of dune
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