I think we have a great chance of getting third.
The BNP candidate will take Labours vote as they have no chance. Those that remain will defect to the LDs as a "Stop the Tories" vote.

I was out with Chris today and people were very receptive to him and his message.

Henley is an interesting constituency because of its proximity to London, but its complete lack of the social problems. Immigration in the constituency is largely educated EU - computer industry, ESA, high level research and middle class London commuters. They will not be voting, but their friends will and anything that focusses on EU immigration will fall on stony ground.

EU over regulation will gain a response as many people are entrepreneurs and people who have to deal with the EU.

The electorate is one of the most highly educated in the country. Internet usage, as with all of Oxon, is way over 50%, in fact I believe that more than half the electorate have access to broadband.

The issues locally are Townlands Hospital and education (Henley borders Bucks with its grammar schools).

RAF Benson is in the constituency. Many people serve in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Labour's vote will be squeezed. I spoke to a senior Oxon constituency Tory last night and we are seen as likely to take some of the Tory vote. The Tories think Labour votes will go LibDem and their only worry is a swing to the LibDems (the LibDems dumped their local candidate so might have shot themselves in the foot). Tories expect to win with a strong LibDem push. The Green candidate is a friend of mine and he helped me leaflet when I stood as an Independent for the first time (as did aarable); I reciprocated in Oxford to get Labour out. Oxford has a lot of Greens who will be out in force. BNP had a council candidate in the constituency and will make a push. I reckon Labour will lose their deposit.

That over confidence of the Tories should really provide an opportunity for UKIP.

Just spent the day campaigning in Henley and Goring. I would be tempted to increase my predicted result based on the surprisingly warm response we received today.
It would seem many people voted for Boris, not Conservatives, and don;t much like the new guy. Doubt anything amazing will happen but certainly a lote of personal votes up for grabs.

Originally Posted by harryaldridge:
Just spent the day campaigning in Henley and Goring. I would be tempted to increase my predicted result based on the surprisingly warm response we received today.

Is there any particular aspect that people responded to the most? Immigration, EU, local issues, post offices etc

When I was out with Chris on Friday the entire message from Chris was going across well. I don't think the Tory vote is particularly motivated.
We won't win but we will do better than our enemies predict.

Does anyone on the ground know if the BNP pose any threat?

When is the deadline for Nominations?

I shan't make a guess at the percentage till I know who's standing.

It might be better to think about the Share of the Vote the non-Lib/Lab/Con will get and then deduce the Share of that percentage UKIP could get.

Everyone else got 5% in total in Crewe and Nantwich and UKIP got a bit under half of that.
How do you reckon it will pan out in Henley?

Originally Posted by Anthony Butcher:
Is there any particular aspect that people responded to the most? Immigration, EU, local issues, post offices etc

Sleaze, post offices, tax, immigration, cost of EU, smoking ban, the whole lot. People, particularly young people and new voters, questioning what difference Cameron could make. Most seem to see him as just another version of Labour. Extremely interesting.

Chris had two conservative party members come up to him a few days ago and say "we're conservative members, but what we're doing is wrong. We're voting UKIP"!!! And that was right under the nose of a bloke in a blue rosette who apparently looked most disturbed.

Not seen a response like it before. Whether it will translate into votes remains to be seen, but certainly it feels like a shift in attitude towards us compared with other campaigns I have been involved with.

As I say, not necessarily ground breaking, but feels like progress.

So far 70% of you don't think UKIP will save it's Deposit.


Of those I understand to be UKIP . . .
7 think UKIP will
6 think UKIP won't.