I think the big thing will be the humiliation of Labour. I genuinely think their vote will collapse. I'm not able to campaign until a lot closer to the election, but would expect us to pick up a protest vote with a good candidate. BNP did have a council candidate last time out which, under twizzel's chairmanship, we did not. I don't think it is good territory for the BNP, but there is potential for the 'minor' parties to share about 10% of the vote between them as people will assume the Tories will romp it.

I reckon third place is up for grabs.

Pushing Labour into fourth place again would be fantastic, and would put UKIP back on the map.

Originally Posted by Aardvark:
I think the big thing will be the humiliation of Labour. I genuinely think their vote will collapse. I'm not able to campaign until a lot closer to the election, but would expect us to pick up a protest vote with a good candidate. BNP did have a council candidate last time out which, under twizzel's chairmanship, we did not. I don't think it is good territory for the BNP, but there is potential for the 'minor' parties to share about 10% of the vote between them as people will assume the Tories will romp it.

I reckon third place is up for grabs.

10% seems a realistic proportion to me.
Could be 12%, tops.

A bit under half of that puts UKIP in a Deposit-saving position.

Well, what little I have seen of the campaign so far looks promising. Lots of literature targeted at different groups of voters, and some pretty damaging leaflets targeting another party (I won't say which, but they'll know about it soon enough :-) )

Also, from what I've seen of the candidate's site/blog suggests that we are running a well-thought-out campaign.

What is this from the poster Twizzel?:

''But the committee has disintegrated, so to all intents and purposes Farage has destroyed UKIP Henley.''

Originally Posted by HFTF:
What is this from the poster Twizzel?:

''But the committee has disintegrated, so to all intents and purposes Farage has destroyed UKIP Henley.''

It has since been relaunched: UKIP Henley. Do keep up.

Originally Posted by UkipHM:
It has since been relaunched: UKIP Henley. Do keep up.

Thank you.

Originally Posted by UkipHM:
What do you think UKIP's percentage of the vote will be in Henley by-election? (And why?)

I voted 4-6 on the basis that this election could throw up more anti-EU types. I reckon it will be tantalisingly close to saving a deposit. Just like David Sutch in Rotherham. He put in a better than average showing, and it paid off.

The message is this, as it always is. You need to have good sound policies. You need a bit of momentum. And you need to have a damn good publicity vehicle (bus or walking, it doesn't matter!).

Rotherham by-election, 1994 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Originally Posted by Populist Lee:
10% seems a realistic proportion to me.
Could be 12%, tops.

A bit under half of that puts UKIP in a Deposit-saving position.

Any update on how it's going and what we expect/hope to get?

I voted 2% to 4% for UKIP. Could be more, could be less.
I going to stick my neck out here and predict between 7% to 9% for the BNP.