Just listen to the way the media is saying the BNP vote, it might not be ground breaking but they are, as oft happens, giving it an emphasis that far outweighs its relative small size....it's not how big it is, but how it is used...!

The media will make an awful lot of this BNP vote. That publicity (worth millions) will more than outweigh any loss of deposit. UKIP's coverage will be zero.
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Originally Posted by For_England:
Another terrible result for the BNP. We are only on the verge of ruin and destruction, nothing big.

Although they will, the BNP haven't that much to crow about - - beaten by the Greens.
And I expect the recriminations about the duff leaflets to start with a venom as well. There is no reason why the BNP shouldn't have finished in third spot.
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When was the last time the BNP beat Labour in a parliamentary seat? I can see past the 4th place position for the BNP to the considerable attention the media will give this.
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Originally Posted by mrabody:
Well it was a crappy result for UKIP but not really much crappier than anyone elses.

From what I could see, we ran a decent campaign but without a functioning branch and too few volunteers there wasn't much we could do but leaflet.

But why can't UKIP capitalise on the recent Irish referendum coverage?

Today on the local news they had a real go at the EU for stupid fruit laws that force large amounts of waste at a time when food is rising in cost. You can't get much better anti-EU coverage than we have had over the last couple of weeks.

Is it simply that the EU isn't sufficient draw for UKIP? If so, that doesn't bode well for the EU elections.

UKIP hasn't had a good result in a long time now. I think that UKIP members should seriously start to consider the possibility that they won't have any MEPs next year unless the party starts to massively improve its performance. Remember that they will need 12-14% of the vote to get a single MEP in a region. That's a tall order at the best of times.

The problem is that success breeds success, and the longer UKIP fails to impress, the more it will fade into the political background. Going into the EU elections on the back of no decent results for two/three years isn't going to convince anyone that UKIP is a 'winning' party; there is a real danger that many people will consider it a wasted vote.
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Originally Posted by Populist Lee:
Although they will, the BNP haven't that much to crow about - - beaten by the Greens.
And I expect the recriminations about the duff leaflets to start with a venom as well. There is no reason why the BNP shouldn't have finished in third spot.

Yep, we can't keep looking at success based upon how well we do against UKIP - a party of old irrelevant farts (as perceived by the public) that has obviously long since reached it's heyday. The cold light of reality is the BNP got less than four percent, which is a huge disappointment - I was hoping for at least 8 percent. A few years ago it seemed that the BNP were consistently getting 15-25 percent in council elections. I realise a by election plays by different rules, and it's more important to back the party with the best chance of winning, and perhaps that's what we have here. I really think the BNP needs to start polling areas like this to find out how many would a. support it's policies if it wasn't the BNP; b. how many would vote for BNP if they didn't vote tactically, and c. what the BNP needs to do to win their votes.
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Originally Posted by Anthony Butcher:
But why can't UKIP capitalise on the recent Irish referendum coverage?

UKIP did **** (and let's face it, the other parties - including the BNP - didn't do great either) because people realise that the best way to put the brakes on the EU - the only sensible and realistic way - is for the Cons to get in. Will they deliver? Perhaps they will put the brakes on, though they won't withdraw, but I think most people would feel happy right now just to stop its growth.
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Originally Posted by For_England:
UKIP did **** (and let's face it, the other parties - including the BNP - didn't do great either) because people realise that the best way to put the brakes on the EU - the only sensible and realistic way - is for the Cons to get in. Will they deliver? Perhaps they will put the brakes on, though they won't withdraw, but I think most people would feel happy right now just to stop its growth.

I would vote for a turd wearing a rosette at the moment if it would get Labour out. I expect that will be a primary voting factor across the country in the next General Election, just like in 1997.
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Originally Posted by a swansong 4 europe:
When was the last time the BNP beat Labour in a parliamentary seat? I can see past the 4th place position for the BNP to the considerable attention the media will give this.

I'll be seeing a couple of the people deeply involved in the BNP Henley Campaign next weekend. I wonder what their private comments will be?
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It is not possible to draw anything from this vote but good news for the BNP as they did not stand here before. On the other hand the other main players had, and both UKIP and Labour have seen their percentage vote fall or plummet. The Greens went up and the BNP polled 3.6% from nothing, so on any graph used by sephologists that would indictate a rise of 3.6%, that is quite a swing from say nothing.

Even half of that as a swing nationally for the BNP would increase their Euro vote from around 4.8% to say 6.6%, or assuming polling figures were similar to last time, an increase from 808,000 votes to about 1.1 million, which I would imgaine could well result in one or two MEPs in say either Yorkshire or West Midlands, where the BNP result was 50%+ higher than nationally.

I say again, the media may well make far more of this than the BNP might do, and with good cause as they can see the trends.
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UKIP seem to have peaked and be in decline but these EDP lot never even got going. The outside parties are all floundering and the BNP are only crawling forward.
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